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13

Brilliant Berti

5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 13 · OR 116

Keeneland · Race 9 - FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented By PDJF - Grade 1 · 1m

#10

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart horse who won a listed race at Ellis Park in August. Good 2½ lengths fourth of 8 to Rhetorical in Turf Mile over C&D earlier in the month. Uphill task.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Kentucky Downs 06/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 110 · 1m Gd 124 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 110 par6/09C1OR 110C0 @ Keeneland 04/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 110 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 110 parC1 @ Fair Grounds 14/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 124 · 1m1f Fm 118 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 124 par14/02C1OR 124C0 @ Keeneland 10/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 119 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 119 parC1 @ Churchill Downs 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 125 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 125 par30/05C1OR 125C0 @ Churchill Downs 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 123 · 1m110y Gd 118 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 123 parBHA118 @ Ellis Park 02/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 118 · 1m110y Gd 122 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 118 par2/08118OR 118C1 @ Kentucky Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 118 · 1m 124 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 118 parC0 @ Keeneland 03/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 116 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 116 par3/10C?OR 116projClass-projected finish: 12th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03KeenelandBrian Jr Hernandez?4th4th0
2026-09-07Kentucky DownsBrian Jr Hernandez?3rd4th−0
2026-08-02Ellis ParkBrian Jr HernandezBHA1181st15th−12
2026-06-27Churchill DownsBrian Jr Hernandez?4th4th−0
2026-05-30Churchill DownsBrian Jr Hernandez?4th5th−0
2026-04-10KeenelandBrian Jr Hernandez?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0910/042/083/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 9-15 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength5%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/09/20254th4/179%75%-0.04
04/10/20253rd20/10%80%+0.80
14/02/20264th5/287%67%-0.20
10/04/20265th20/10%33%+0.33
30/05/20264th7/282%63%-0.19
27/06/20264th13/266%63%-0.03
02/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
07/09/20263rd11/271%78%+0.07
03/10/20264th12/137%57%+0.20