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Deterministic

5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 123

Keeneland · Race 9 - FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented By PDJF - Grade 1 · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart horse with an impressive strike rate. Tasted success 4 times in Grade 1 company, winning both runnings of the Manhattan and Fourstardave last year and this. Had no answer to Notable Speech despite setting the pace in the Woodbine Mile last time. Looks to be playing for a place at best.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Aqueduct 09/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 105 · 1m1f Fm 124 · beat its mark09/11/2024 · OR 105 par9/11C1OR 105C5 @ Keeneland 06/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 106 · 1m1f 123 · below its mark06/04/2025 · OR 106 parC0 @ Belmont At The Big A 03/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 106 · 1m1f Fm 124 · beat its mark03/05/2025 · OR 106 par3/05C?OR 106C0 @ Saratoga 08/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 109 · 1m1f110y Gd 122 · beat its mark08/06/2025 · OR 109 parC0 @ Saratoga 02/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 111 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 111 par2/08C?OR 111C1 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 117 · 1m1f Fm 124 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 117 parC0 @ Saratoga 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 119 · 1m1f110y Fm 124 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 119 par6/06C?OR 119C0 @ Saratoga 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 118 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 118 parC0 @ Woodbine 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 120 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 120 par12/09C?OR 120projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12WoodbineKendrick Carmouche?2nd2nd0
2026-08-08SaratogaKendrick Carmouche?1st1st0
2026-06-06SaratogaKendrick Carmouche?1st1st0
2026-05-02Belmont At The Big AKendrick Carmouche?1st2nd−0
2025-08-02SaratogaKendrick Carmouche?1st1st0
2025-06-08SaratogaKendrick Carmouche?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/118/066/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength67%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/11/20241st9/488%100%+0.12
06/04/20252nd5/287%80%-0.07
03/05/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
08/06/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
02/08/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
02/05/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
06/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
08/08/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
12/09/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08