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3

Facteur Cheval

7yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 3 · OR 111

Keeneland · Race 9 - FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented By PDJF - Grade 1 · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Globetrotter who failed to add to his 2024 Dubai Turf success for J. Reynier but opened his North American account at the first time of asking in 9-runner allowance at this course earlier in the month. Doesn't look the force of old.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength12%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Goodwood 31/07/2024 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 120 · 1m Goo 136 · below its mark31/07/2024 · OR 120 par31/071OR 1201 @ Ascot 19/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 120 · 1m Sft 132 · beat its mark19/10/2024 · OR 120 parC0 @ Meydan 24/01/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m1f Fas 12724/01C?C0 @ Meydan 05/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 120 · 1m1f Gd 126 · below its mark05/04/2025 · OR 120 par1 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 115 · 1m1f212y Goo 128 · below its mark18/06/2025 · OR 115 par18/061OR 1151 @ Ascot 18/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 115 · 1m Gd 132 · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 115 parC0 @ Meydan 28/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 114 · 1m1f Gd 126 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 114 par28/03C?OR 114C1 @ Kentucky Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 114 · 1m 122 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 114 parC5 @ Keeneland 08/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 110 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark08/10/2026 · OR 110 par8/10C5OR 110projClass-projected finish: 14th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-08KeenelandIrad Ortiz Jr?1st7th−5
2026-09-07Kentucky DownsJoel Rosario?6th7th−0
2026-03-28MeydanM Barzalona?7th7th0
2025-10-18AscotM Barzalona19th9th0
2025-06-18Royal AscotFlavien Prat16th6th0
2025-04-05MeydanM Guyon?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/075/0428/038/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 7-15 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength27%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/20243rd5/174%50%-0.24
19/10/20242nd11/271%91%+0.20
24/01/20253rd9/276%82%+0.06
05/04/20256th33/10%50%+0.50
18/06/20256th25/10%29%+0.29
18/10/20259th25/10%47%+0.47
28/03/20267th16/116%40%+0.24
07/09/20266th10/147%44%-0.03
08/10/20261st5/287%100%+0.13