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11

Formidable Man

5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 11 · OR 115

Keeneland · Race 9 - FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented By PDJF - Grade 1 · 1m

#13

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Chased home Notable Speech in last year's Mile at Del Mar and went one better on return in the Shoemaker at Santa Anita in May. Comes into this off a below-par effort in Grade 3 at Kentucky Downs in September but no surprise to see him bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Gulfstream 25/01/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 105 · 1m1f Fm 123 · below its mark25/01/2025 · OR 105 par25/01C?OR 105C0 @ Santa Anita 02/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 105 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark02/03/2025 · OR 105 parC0 @ Santa Anita 27/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 107 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark27/05/2025 · OR 107 par27/05C?OR 107C0 @ Del Mar 28/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 111 · 1m1f Fm 125 · beat its mark28/07/2025 · OR 111 parC0 @ Del Mar 30/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 112 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 112 par30/08C?OR 112C0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 114 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 114 parC0 @ Santa Anita 25/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 116 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 116 par25/05C?OR 116C0 @ Del Mar 27/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 116 · 1m1f Fm 125 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 116 parC1 @ Kentucky Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 116 · 1m 126 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 116 par7/09C1OR 116projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Kentucky DownsFlavien Prat?7th8th−0
2026-07-27Del MarJohn Velazquez?3rd3rd−0
2026-05-25Santa AnitaFlavien Prat?1st1st0
2025-11-01Del MarJohn Velazquez?2nd2nd0
2025-08-30Del MarUmberto Rispoli?1st1st−0
2025-07-28Del MarUmberto Rispoli?1st1st−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0128/0725/057/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 8-15 · tight 66/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength1%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/01/202512th16/116%0%-0.16
02/03/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
27/05/20254th3/184%63%-0.22
28/07/20251st5/696%100%+0.04
30/08/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
01/11/20252nd16/116%92%+0.76
25/05/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
27/07/20263rd5/696%71%-0.24
07/09/20267th5/287%33%-0.54