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Lake Forest

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 113

Keeneland · Race 9 - FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented By PDJF - Grade 1 · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Very smart gelding. Snapped a losing run with 2 victories this year, in listed race at Haydock in May and Group 2 Lennox at Goodwood in July. Gained valuable experience of US turf racing when 2¼ lengths second to Rhetorical in Turf Mile over C&D 4 weeks ago, repeatedly denied a run. One to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength5%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ York 28/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 114 · 7f Goo 134 · below its mark28/06/2025 · OR 114 par28/061OR 1141 @ Goodwood 29/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 113 · 7f Gd 132 · beat its mark29/07/2025 · OR 113 par1 @ York 23/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 113 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 113 par23/081OR 1131 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 115 · 6f212y Gd 136 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 115 par1 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 119 · 6f GF 131 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 119 par20/061OR 1191 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 119 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 119 par1 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 119 · 1m Goo 136 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 119 par29/071OR 1191 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 118 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 118 parC0 @ Keeneland 03/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 118 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 118 par3/10C?OR 118projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03KeenelandCieren Fallon?2nd2nd0
2026-08-22YorkCieren Fallon12nd2nd0
2026-07-29GoodwoodCieren Fallon17th7th0
2026-07-28GoodwoodCieren Fallon11st1st−0
2026-06-20Royal AscotCieren Fallon15th5th0
2026-05-09HaydockCieren Fallon11st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/069/0529/073/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 57/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/06/20256th13/891%29%-0.63
29/07/20252nd11/142%89%+0.47
23/08/20252nd12/137%89%+0.52
09/05/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
20/06/20265th6/168%76%+0.08
28/07/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
29/07/20267th17/255%45%-0.10
22/08/20262nd6/168%92%+0.24
03/10/20262nd13/891%86%-0.06