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Notable Speech

5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 8 · OR 123

Keeneland · Race 9 - FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented By PDJF - Grade 1 · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

17%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

High-class horse with a sharp turn of foot who's been a wonderful servant for his connections. Won 3 of his 5 starts this year, all at the top level, latest in 6-runner Woodbine Mile beating Deterministic by 1¼ lengths. He's looking to repeat last year's success and is the standard bearer.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength9%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Newmarket 12/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 118 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 118 par12/071OR 118C0 @ Deauville 17/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 117 · 7f209y GS 131 · beat its mark17/08/2025 · OR 117 parC0 @ Woodbine 13/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 131 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 131 par13/09C?OR 131C0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 123 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 123 parC0 @ Keeneland 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 125 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 125 par10/04C?OR 1251 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 122 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 122 par1 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 125 · 1m GF 128 · below its mark16/06/2026 · OR 125 par16/061OR 1251 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 124 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 124 parC0 @ Woodbine 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 119 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 119 par12/09C?OR 119projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12WoodbineW Buick?1st1st0
2026-08-22YorkW Buick11st1st0
2026-06-16Royal AscotW Buick16th6th0
2026-05-16NewburyW Buick11st1st0
2026-04-10KeenelandW Buick?4th4th0
2025-11-01Del MarW Buick?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/071/1116/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 66/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength85%

Delivery trend -0.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/07/20255th85/4089%69%-0.20
17/08/20252nd10/382%89%+0.06
13/09/20251st3/1098%100%+0.02
01/11/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
10/04/20264th5/696%50%-0.46
16/05/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
16/06/20266th9/488%38%-0.51
22/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
12/09/20261st4/998%100%+0.02