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9

Rhetorical

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 9 · OR 118

Keeneland · Race 9 - FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented By PDJF - Grade 1 · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

78%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Another who seems best when leading, gaining both successes from the front this season in the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs in May and C&D Turf Mile earlier this month. Unlikely to get things his own way this time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 19/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 104 · 1m110y Fm 125 · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 104 par19/07C6OR 104C5 @ Saratoga 24/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 108 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 108 parC0 @ Keeneland 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 105 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 105 par4/10C?OR 105C0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 110 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 110 parC0 @ Keeneland 10/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 116 · 1m Fm 123 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 116 par10/04C?OR 116C0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 118 · 1m1f Fm 123 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 118 parC0 @ Saratoga 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 116 · 1m1f110y Fm 124 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 116 par6/06C?OR 116C0 @ Saratoga 08/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 116 · 1m Fm 126 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 116 parC0 @ Keeneland 03/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 118 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 118 par3/10C?OR 118projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03KeenelandIrad Ortiz Jr?1st1st0
2026-08-08SaratogaManuel Franco?4th4th0
2026-06-06SaratogaIrad Ortiz Jr?4th4th0
2026-05-02Churchill DownsIrad Ortiz Jr?1st1st0
2026-04-10KeenelandIrad Ortiz Jr?3rd3rd0
2025-11-01Del MarIrad Ortiz Jr?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/071/116/063/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 5-14 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
24/08/20251st3/1098%100%+0.02
04/10/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
01/11/20254th11/271%75%+0.04
10/04/20263rd3/184%67%-0.18
02/05/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
06/06/20264th11/486%63%-0.23
08/08/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
03/10/20261st5/287%100%+0.13