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12

True Love

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 12 · OR 116

Keeneland · Race 9 - FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented By PDJF - Grade 1 · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 1000 Guineas at Newmarket in May and wasn't completely disgraced in defeat after before scoring at Longchamp in the Prix de la Foret on Arc weekend. Overlooked by Ryan Moore for this assignment.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Del Mar 31/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 115 · 5f Fm 119 · below its mark31/10/2025 · OR 115 par31/10C?OR 1151 @ Leopardstown 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 115 · 7f42y Yie 131 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 115 par1 @ Newmarket 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 115 · 1m GF 128 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 115 par3/051OR 1151 @ Curragh 24/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 116 · 1m Gd 128 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 116 par1 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 115 · 7f213y GF 128 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 115 par19/061OR 1151 @ Deauville 12/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 114 · 6f211y Gd 124 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 114 parC0 @ Deauville 09/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 113 · 6f101y GS 122 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 113 par9/08C?OR 1131 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 113 · 1m Gd 128 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 113 par1 @ ParisLongchamp 04/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 113 · 6f211y GS 122 · beat its mark04/10/2026 · OR 113 par4/101OR 113projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-04ParisLongchampR L Moore11st1st0
2026-09-12LeopardstownPierre-Charles Boudot16th6th0
2026-08-09DeauvilleWayne Lordan?5th5th0
2026-07-12DeauvilleR L Moore12nd2nd0
2026-06-19Royal AscotWayne Lordan13rd3rd0
2026-05-24CurraghR L Moore12nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/1024/059/084/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength52%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/10/20258th3/184%36%-0.48
12/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
03/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
24/05/20262nd4/696%90%-0.06
19/06/20263rd5/287%75%-0.12
12/07/20262nd13/891%86%-0.06
09/08/20265th2/189%60%-0.29
12/09/20266th15/261%38%-0.23
04/10/20261st5/287%100%+0.13