8

Awesome Mckinzie

4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 8 · OR 75

Laurel Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 17/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 75 · 1m110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/07/2025 · OR 75 par17/07C6OR 75C6 @ Colonial Downs 14/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m1f110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/08/2025 · OR 77 parC6 @ Laurel Park 21/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS21/09C6C9 @ Laurel Park 10/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m Fm 123C7 @ Laurel Park 01/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 76 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 76 par1/11C7OR 76C7 @ Laurel Park 08/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 72 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 72 parC7 @ Laurel Park 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 73 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 73 par20/06C7OR 73C8 @ Colonial Downs 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 76 · 6f Fm 122 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 76 parC7 @ Laurel Park 20/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 74 · 1m 126 · below its mark20/09/2026 · OR 74 par20/09C7OR 74projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-20Laurel ParkForest Boyce?3rd3rd0
2026-08-06Colonial DownsForest Boyce?2nd3rd−1
2026-06-20Laurel ParkForest Boyce?6th6th0
2026-05-08Laurel ParkForest Boyce?4th4th0
2025-11-01Laurel ParkJorge Ruiz?4th4th0
2025-10-10Laurel ParkJorge Ruiz?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0710/1020/0620/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/20253rd8/158%50%-0.08
14/08/20256th40/10%38%+0.38
21/09/20257th33/10%0%0.00
10/10/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
01/11/20254th14/126%63%+0.36
08/05/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
20/06/20266th12/137%38%+0.01
06/08/20262nd25/10%88%+0.88
20/09/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41