12
Band On The Run
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 12 · OR 87
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Laurel Park | Leandro Briceno | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | Laurel Park | Taylor Kingsley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | Jareth Loveberry | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Colonial Downs | Jareth Loveberry | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | Jareth Loveberry | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | Jareth Loveberry | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 2-12 · tight 37/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength38%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 22% | -0.62 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 20/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 29/10/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |