Mischievous Twins

4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 10 · OR 79

Laurel Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

9/5

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

81%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength28%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: -0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-10	Laurel Park	Jaime Rodriguez	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-09-11	Delaware Park	Jaime Rodriguez	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-28	Colonial Downs	Carlos Lopez	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6
2026-08-13	Colonial Downs	Mychel Sanchez	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 58/100

▲ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength82%

Delivery trend -16.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/08/2026	3rd	20/1	0%	67%	+0.67
28/08/2026	6th	20/1	0%	38%	+0.38
11/09/2026	2nd	5/2	87%	89%	+0.02
10/10/2026	1st	9/2	76%	100%	+0.24