Nova Knicks

2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 51

Laurel Park · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

6/5

Win Prob

82%

Place Prob

55%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength25%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-25	Laurel Park	Xavier Perez	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-09-04	Colonial Downs	Samuel Marin	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 5-5 · tight 71/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength54%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/09/2026	4th	6/1	68%	25%	-0.43
25/09/2026	3rd	13/8	91%	50%	-0.41