Beltane

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 78

Laurel Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength34%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-20	Laurel Park	Jeiron Barbosa	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-09	Colonial Downs	Jean Briceno	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-07-16	Colonial Downs	Jean Briceno	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-19	Laurel Park	Jean Briceno	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2025-11-21	Laurel Park	Jeiron Barbosa	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2025-11-01	Laurel Park	Jeiron Barbosa	?	10th	9th	+1	1.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100

▼ SLIPPING

Trend▬

Strength78%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 7.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/08/2025	4th	10/1	47%	50%	+0.03
10/09/2025	6th	4/1	79%	29%	-0.50
12/10/2025	3rd	9/1	53%	78%	+0.25
01/11/2025	10th	14/1	26%	10%	-0.16
21/11/2025	3rd	33/1	0%	82%	+0.82
19/06/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	67%	+0.19
16/07/2026	5th	13/2	66%	33%	-0.32
09/08/2026	7th	9/1	53%	33%	-0.19
20/09/2026	2nd	15/2	61%	80%	+0.19