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2

Dowagiac Chief

7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 92

Laurel Park · Race 3 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#10

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Presque Isle Downs 13/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 95 · 6f 123 · below its mark13/10/2025 · OR 95 par13/10C7OR 95C6 @ Laurel Park 26/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 94 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/10/2025 · OR 94 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 26/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 94 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 94 par26/05C6OR 94C6 @ Penn National 11/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 97 · 1m70y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 97 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 94 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 94 par2/07C6OR 94C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 27/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 96 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 96 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 94 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 94 par14/08C6OR 94C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 92 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/09/2026 · OR 92 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 19/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 91 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/10/2026 · OR 91 par19/10C6OR 91projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-19Presque Isle DownsWalber Alencar?6th5th+1
2026-09-29Presque Isle DownsWalber Alencar?2nd1st+1
2026-08-14Presque Isle DownsMartina Rojas?5th4th+1
2026-07-27Presque Isle DownsMartina Rojas?4th3rd+1
2026-07-02Presque Isle DownsMartina Rojas?2nd1st+1
2026-06-11Penn NationalMartina Rojas?5th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1011/0614/0819/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength39%

Delivery trend +7.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/10/20253rd5/287%33%-0.54
26/10/20257th20/10%33%+0.33
26/05/20264th13/266%25%-0.41
11/06/20265th9/153%0%-0.53
02/07/20262nd12/137%75%+0.38
27/07/20264th12/137%57%+0.20
14/08/20265th16/116%20%+0.04
29/09/20262nd16/116%75%+0.59
19/10/20266th25/10%0%0.00