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For Keeps

3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 68

Laurel Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼2
Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 11/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 1m Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS11/09C6C6 @ Delaware Park 08/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 65 · 6f Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 65 par8/10C6OR 65C6 @ Laurel Park 05/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS5/06C6C9 @ Colonial Downs 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 63 · 5f Gd 119 · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 63 par9/07C9OR 63C6 @ Colonial Downs 15/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 63 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 63 par15/08C6OR 63C6 @ Colonial Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 67 · 1m Yie 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 67 par5/09C6OR 67C9 @ Laurel Park 10/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 11910/10C9projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-10Laurel ParkIsmerio Villalobos?7th7th0
2026-09-05Colonial DownsIsmerio Villalobos?8th5th+3
2026-08-15Colonial DownsIsmerio Villalobos?4th1st+3
2026-07-09Colonial DownsSheldon Russell?5th5th0
2026-06-05Laurel ParkSheldon Russell?10th7th+3
2025-10-08Delaware ParkJevian Toledo?8th5th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/099/0710/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength89%

Delivery trend +14.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/09/202510th5/174%10%-0.64
08/10/20258th14/126%0%-0.26
05/06/202610th25/10%0%0.00
09/07/20265th9/276%50%-0.26
15/08/20264th25/10%40%+0.40
05/09/20268th20/10%0%0.00
10/10/20267th25/10%40%+0.40