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7yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 3 · OR 83

Laurel Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength14%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: -0.3

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-09	Laurel Park	Jeiron Barbosa	?	11th	11th	0	1.0
2026-09-18	Laurel Park	Jeiron Barbosa	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-08-13	Colonial Downs	Sonny Leon	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-07-19	Colonial Downs	Sonny Leon	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-06-13	Laurel Park	Ismerio Villalobos	?	11th	11th	0	1.0
2026-05-08	Laurel Park	Jeiron Barbosa	?	7th	7th	0	3.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 6-9 · tight 74/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength7%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/09/2025	6th	20/1	0%	17%	+0.17
25/10/2025	6th	25/1	0%	44%	+0.44
15/11/2025	9th	25/1	0%	11%	+0.11
08/05/2026	7th	33/1	0%	25%	+0.25
13/06/2026	11th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
19/07/2026	3rd	25/1	0%	75%	+0.75
13/08/2026	6th	20/1	0%	29%	+0.29
18/09/2026	7th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
09/10/2026	11th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00