5
Naughty Favors
5yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 79
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Laurel Park | Mychel Sanchez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | Mychel Sanchez | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Colonial Downs | Mychel Sanchez | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | Israel Rodriguez | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | Carlos Barbosa | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | Carlos Barbosa | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 30/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength51%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 15/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 26/05/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 04/10/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |