4

Preparefortakeoff

7yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 88

Laurel Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Laurel Park 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 85 · 5f110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 85 par27/09C6OR 85C5 @ Laurel Park 14/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 86 · 5f110y Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 86 parC5 @ Laurel Park 29/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 87 · 5f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/11/2025 · OR 87 par29/11C5OR 87C5 @ Laurel Park 02/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 80 · 5f110y Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 80 parC6 @ Laurel Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 81 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 81 par16/05C6OR 81C5 @ Laurel Park 31/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 77 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 77 parC7 @ Laurel Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 82 · 5f110y Fm 123 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 82 par13/06C7OR 82C7 @ Laurel Park 18/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 91 · 5f110y Fm 119 · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 91 parC7 @ Laurel Park 04/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 89 · 5f110y 123 · below its mark04/10/2026 · OR 89 par4/10C7OR 89projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-04Laurel ParkLeandro Briceno?2nd2nd0
2026-09-18Laurel ParkLeandro Briceno?2nd2nd0
2026-06-13Laurel ParkJean Briceno?8th8th0
2026-05-31Laurel ParkJean Briceno?6th4th+2
2026-05-16Laurel ParkJean Briceno?6th5th+1
2026-05-02Laurel ParkJevian Toledo?5th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/092/0513/064/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength74%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20251st25/10%100%+1.00
14/11/20258th5/174%13%-0.61
29/11/20259th25/10%0%0.00
02/05/20265th14/126%20%-0.06
16/05/20266th50/10%44%+0.44
31/05/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
13/06/20268th9/153%30%-0.23
18/09/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46
04/10/20262nd7/163%75%+0.12