9
Worries Unfounded
5yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 9 · OR 74
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Charles Town | Arnaldo Bocachica | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-22 | Charles Town | Arnaldo Bocachica | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Charles Town | Arnaldo Bocachica | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Laurel Park | Horacio Karamanos | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | Jose Vargas | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Laurel Park | Carlos Lopez | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 23/01/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 30% | -0.44 |
| 15/02/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 27/03/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 21/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 19/09/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |