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11

Tony Stark

2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 11 · OR 53

Laurel Park · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼3
Strength94%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +3.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Churchill Downs 10/05/2015 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f0y 118 · HIGHER CLASS10/05C5C5 @ Churchill Downs 05/06/2015 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m0f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS5/06C5C6 @ Laurel Park 25/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS25/09C6projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Laurel ParkJean Briceno?4th1st+3
2015-06-05Churchill DownsChanning Hill?10th6th+4
2015-05-10Churchill DownsChanning Hill?8th4th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/055/0625/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 9-16 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength21%

Delivery trend -13.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/05/20158th50/10%30%+0.30
05/06/201510th30/10%0%0.00
25/09/20264th12/137%40%+0.03