Can't Fool Me
7yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 91
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Laurel Park | Horacio Karamanos | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | Belmont Park | Dylan Davis | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Belmont At The Big A | Flavien Prat | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 25/10/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 25/09/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/10/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |