5
Never So Lucky
6yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 52
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Laurel Park | Matilda Burnham | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-10-04 | Laurel Park | Ronaldo Rodriguez | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | Mountaineer | Yuri Yaranga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Delaware Park | Emanuel Rosario | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-09-01 | Mountaineer | Yuri Yaranga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Mountaineer | Michael Pagan | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 7-10 · tight 76/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 09/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 27/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 04/10/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 16/10/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |