12
Armed N Dangerous
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 12 · OR 78
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Laurel Park | Leandro Briceno | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-06 | Penn National | Jomar Torres | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | Andrew Wolfsont | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | Brian Jr Hernandez | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | Brian Jr Hernandez | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Laurel Park | Angel Cruz | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 5-16 · tight 51/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength26%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 23/07/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 22/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 18/10/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |