14
Blown Cover
5yo Horse · 8-11 · Draw 14 · OR 101
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Belmont Park | Ruben Silvera | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-09-20 | Meadowlands | Reylu Gutierrez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | Ruben Silvera | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | Jaime Rodriguez | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Aqueduct | Ruben Silvera | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 06/02/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 20/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 17/10/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |