16
Catatumbo
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 16 · OR 83
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Charles Town | Victor Rodriguez | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Delaware Park | Jose Betancourt | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Charles Town | Victor Rodriguez | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Charles Town | Victor Rodriguez | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Delaware Park | Jose Betancourt | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | Jose Betancourt | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 8-16 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/10/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |