IvyArcIvyArc
1

Forrest City

7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 94

Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength2%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Laurel Park 02/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 87 · 1m Fas 123 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 87 par2/05C8OR 87C8 @ Laurel Park 23/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 76 · 1m110y Slo 119 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 76 parC8 @ Laurel Park 14/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 81 · 1m 119 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 81 par14/06C8OR 81C8 @ Colonial Downs 09/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 81 · 1m Fas 123 · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 30/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 82 · 1m Fas 124 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 82 par30/07C8OR 82C8 @ Colonial Downs 09/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 85 · 1m110y Fas 123 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 85 parC0 @ Colonial Downs 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m110y Fas 12022/08C?C5 @ Laurel Park 26/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 90 · 1m Fas 123 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 90 parC5 @ Laurel Park 17/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 89 · 1m110y Slo 123 · beat its mark17/10/2026 · OR 89 par17/10C5OR 89projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-17Laurel ParkTais Lyapustina?2nd2nd0
2026-09-26Laurel ParkTais Lyapustina?2nd2nd0
2026-08-22Colonial DownsTais Lyapustina?3rd3rd0
2026-08-09Colonial DownsTais Lyapustina?1st4th−3
2026-07-30Colonial DownsTais Lyapustina?2nd5th−3
2026-07-09Colonial DownsTais Lyapustina?3rd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/059/0722/0817/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength85%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20268th14/126%13%-0.14
23/05/20265th9/153%20%-0.33
14/06/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
09/07/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
30/07/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01
09/08/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
22/08/20263rd9/153%75%+0.22
26/09/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02
17/10/20262nd10/147%80%+0.33