2
Kalea Bay
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 91
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Laurel Park | Mychel Sanchez | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | Sheldon Russell | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Colonial Downs | Sheldon Russell | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-12-15 | Golden State Racing | Assael Espinoza | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2024-11-18 | Del Mar | Juan Hernandez | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2024-09-28 | Santa Anita | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 1-16 · tight 22/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2024 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 01/09/2024 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 28/09/2024 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 18/11/2024 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 15/12/2024 | 7th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 25/09/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |