13
Mongolian Apple
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 13 · OR 91
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Laurel Park | Carlos Lopez | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | Rajiv Maragh | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | Jose Ferrer | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Laurel Park | Rafael Bejarano | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Laurel Park | Angel Cruz | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-04 | Santa Anita | Cesar Belmont | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 31/01/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 04/05/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 22/08/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 10/10/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |