IvyArcIvyArc
7

Orator

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 7 · OR 91

Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Kentucky Downs 31/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 89 · 1m4f 121 · below its mark31/08/2025 · OR 89 par31/08C6OR 89C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 05/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 90 · 1m1f110y Fm 120 · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 90 parC6 @ Laurel Park 30/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m1f Gd 12630/05C6C9 @ Laurel Park 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 126C8 @ Monmouth Park 31/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 87 · 1m Fm 121 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 87 par31/07C8OR 87C5 @ Delaware Park 13/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 85 · 1m110y Gd 120 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 85 parC7 @ Colonial Downs 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 87 · 1m1f Fm 123 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 87 par28/08C7OR 87C5 @ Laurel Park 26/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 89 · 1m110y Gd 123 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Meadowlands 11/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 93 · 1m 123 · below its mark11/10/2026 · OR 93 par11/10C5OR 93projClass-projected finish: 10th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-11MeadowlandsRuben Silvera?6th6th0
2026-09-26Laurel ParkJose Vargas?2nd2nd0
2026-08-28Colonial DownsJose Vargas?2nd4th−2
2026-08-13Delaware ParkRaul Mena?4th4th0
2026-07-31Monmouth ParkCharlie Marquez?4th7th−3
2026-06-26Laurel ParkJose Vargas?1st5th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0826/0628/0811/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 2-16 · tight 32/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength22%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/08/20252nd3/184%89%+0.05
05/10/20255th15/261%50%-0.11
30/05/20266th13/266%38%-0.28
26/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
31/07/20264th7/163%40%-0.23
13/08/20264th33/10%67%+0.67
28/08/20262nd25/10%88%+0.88
26/09/20262nd12/137%90%+0.53
11/10/20266th9/276%0%-0.76