Power Wrench

3yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 15 · OR 70

Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m

#16

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#16

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▲2

Strength6%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: -2.2

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-17	Delaware Park	Ajhari Williams	?	6th	8th	−2	2.2
2026-10-09	Delaware Park	Jesus Rios	?	7th	9th	−2	1.2
2026-09-19	Delaware Park	Vince Halliday	?	6th	8th	−2	2.2
2026-09-09	Delaware Park	Ajhari Williams	?	7th	9th	−2	1.2
2026-04-17	Tampa Bay Downs	Ademar Santos	?	1st	5th	−4	4.8
2026-04-01	Tampa Bay Downs	Ademar Santos	?	2nd	6th	−4	3.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 5-16 · tight 51/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength36%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/02/2026	4th	11/2	71%	63%	-0.09
28/02/2026	9th	12/1	37%	11%	-0.26
11/03/2026	5th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
01/04/2026	2nd	14/1	26%	89%	+0.63
17/04/2026	1st	6/1	68%	100%	+0.32
09/09/2026	7th	25/1	0%	40%	+0.40
19/09/2026	6th	25/1	0%	38%	+0.38
09/10/2026	7th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
17/10/2026	6th	20/1	0%	17%	+0.17