4
Se Thar Barr
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 93
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m
#14
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Laurel Park | Jorge Ruiz | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | Jorge Ruiz | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Colonial Downs | Jorge Ruiz | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Colonial Downs | Jorge Ruiz | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Colonial Downs | Jorge Ruiz | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Laurel Park | Horacio Karamanos | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.24 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 26/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |