12

Lovely La Chenaie

5yo Filly · 0-0

Marseille · Prix De La Societe Du Trotteur Francais - Attele · 1m 5f 38y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

83%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength23%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Salon-De-Provence 24/11/2024 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m2f205y Std 024/11C?C0 @ Salon-De-Provence 22/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR - · 1m2f205y Std 0C0 @ Hyeres 11/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m5f38y Std 011/07C?C0 @ Salon-De-Provence 25/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m2f205y Std 04 @ Marseille-borely 07/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m3f95y Std 0 · HIGHER CLASS7/0544 @ Salon-De-Provence 21/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m2f205y Std 0 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Cagnes-sur-Mer 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m6f118y Std 013/07C?C0 @ Cagnes-sur-Mer 10/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m6f118y Std 0C0 @ Marseille-borely 22/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 1m6f200y Std 022/09C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09HyeresN Mortagne2+3
2026-09-22Marseille-borelyN Mortagne?3rd3rd0
2026-08-10Cagnes-sur-MerN Mortagne?1st1st0
2026-07-13Cagnes-sur-MerN Mortagne?3rd3rd0
2026-06-19Marseille-borelyN Mortagne50
2026-05-21Salon-De-ProvenceN Mortagne48th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1125/1013/0722/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength81%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/11/20243rd12/137%82%+0.45
22/05/20258th80/10%53%+0.53
11/07/20259th66/10%27%+0.27
25/10/20251st25/10%100%+1.00
07/05/20264th40/10%63%+0.63
21/05/20268th40/10%30%+0.30
13/07/20263rd40/10%75%+0.75
10/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
22/09/20263rd6/168%80%+0.12