10
Joyeuse Mab
7yo Mare · 0-0
Marseille · Prix De La Provence - Attele · 1m 5f 38y
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.6
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Salon-De-Provence | P Repichet | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Marseille-borely | P Repichet | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Marseille-borely | P Repichet | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Marseille-borely | P Repichet | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | Mlle C Thonnel | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Marseille | P Repichet | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 79/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +6.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 07/06/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |
| 31/01/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 13/02/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 25/02/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 24/10/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |