11
Mab
4yo Gelding · 0-0
Marseille · Prix De Redon - Attele · 1m 5f 38y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
71%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Salon-De-Provence | R Thonnerieux | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-10-09 | Hyeres | E Briand | 5 | +1 | ||
| 2025-10-03 | Hyeres | Th Briand | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Marseille-borely | J Ch Sorel | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-13 | Hyeres | Th Briand | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-01 | Hyeres | Th Briand | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/09/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/10/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |