10
Mafia Du Bas Bosq
4yo Filly · 0-0
Marseille · Prix De Montolivet - Attele · 1m 5f 38y
#4
Rank
Odds
45/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C8.8
Today: 6
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Salon-De-Provence | Ed Coubard-Meunier | 5 | +1 | ||
| 2026-08-08 | Enghien | M Mottier | 18 | −12 | ||
| 2026-07-30 | La Capelle | M Verva | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Amiens | F Giard | 6 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-30 | Caen | D Bonne | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Strasbourg | F Giard | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 2-12 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/06/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 17/07/2025 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 25/07/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 24/02/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 10/03/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |