15
Mata Hari Turgot
4yo Filly · 0-0
Marseille · Prix De Montolivet - Attele · 1m 5f 38y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
57%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength39%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Hyeres | Y A Briand | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Feurs | Th Briand | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-09-23 | Marseille-borely | Th Briand | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Salon-De-Provence | Th Briand | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 67/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +15.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 82% | -0.06 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 09/10/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |