10
Nacre Du Vallon
3yo Filly · 0-0
Marseille · Prix Des Gardians - Attele · 1m 5f 38y
#1
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength15%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Salon-De-Provence | S Cingland | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-09-18 | Cavaillon | J Guelpa | 3 | +2 | ||
| 2026-08-27 | Marseille-borely | S Cingland | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hyeres | Th Briand | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | Guillaume Lemoine | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-27 | Enghien | P ph Ploquin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +21.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 64% | -0.02 |
| 27/04/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 54% | -0.07 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |