11
Night Des Forges
3yo Filly · 0-0
Marseille · Prix Des Gardians - Attele · 1m 5f 38y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 6
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Marseille-borely | N Mortagne | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Hyeres | Th Briand | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Hyeres | N Ensch | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +17.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 36% | -0.06 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |
| 22/09/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |