4
John Kily
7yo Gelding · 0-0
Marseille · Prix Koenigsberg - Attele · 1m 5f 38y
#5
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼7
Strength7%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 7
Class gap: +7.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-01 | Salon-De-Provence | S Cingland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-06-17 | Caen | F Nivard | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-06-03 | Nantes | Th Rousselet | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-03-28 | Argentan | F Nivard | ? | 0 | ||
| 2023-06-15 | Laval | P ph Ploquin | ? | 0 | ||
| 2022-09-14 | Vire | F Nivard | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2022 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 14/09/2022 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 03/06/2024 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 17/06/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 01/09/2024 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |