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Almarada Prince

5yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 10 · OR 81

Newmarket · Prestige Vehicles Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well backed and ended long losing run in 12-runner event at Pontefract (6f, good) earlier in the month, not having to step up by much, if at all, on this year's efforts. Nudged back up 2 lb and should remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 81 · 5f Std 131 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 81 par27/034OR 814 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 80 · 6f GS 130 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 79 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 79 par23/054OR 794 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 21 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 19 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 78 par11/074OR 784 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 21 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 80 · 6f Sft 140 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 80 par1/094OR 804 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 80 · 5f Goo 138 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Pontefract 05/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 79 · 6f Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/10/2026 · OR 79 par5/103OR 79projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-05PontefractP Mulrennan31st0th+1
2026-09-16BeverleyD Nolan44th4th0
2026-09-01RiponD Nolan42nd2nd0
2026-07-24YorkP Mulrennan42nd2nd0
2026-07-11YorkD Nolan44th4th0
2026-06-13YorkBarry McHugh43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0313/061/095/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/03/20266th7/163%55%-0.09
16/04/20266th14/126%67%+0.40
23/05/20266th9/276%74%-0.03
13/06/20263rd14/126%90%+0.64
11/07/20264th6/168%83%+0.15
24/07/20262nd5/174%95%+0.21
01/09/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03
16/09/20264th2/189%73%-0.17
05/10/20261st4/179%100%+0.21