Bay Breeze
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 66
Newmarket · Prestige Vehicles Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Leicester | D Allan | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-09-28 | Hamilton | Miss Rebecca Burley | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-21 | Hamilton | D Allan | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | D Fentiman | 6 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | D Fentiman | 6 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-07-09 | Carlisle | D Fentiman | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 21/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 28/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 13/10/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 65% | +0.38 |