Caragio
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 8 · OR 79
Newmarket · Prestige Vehicles Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Kempton | Shay Farmer | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-10-07 | Kempton | Taryn Langley | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-26 | Southwell | Charles Bishop | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | A Kirby | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | Charles Bishop | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newcastle | William Carson | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2025 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 17% | -0.39 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 64% | -0.28 |
| 14/06/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 26/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 82% | -0.04 |
| 07/10/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 21/10/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |