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8

Madman

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 6 · OR 75

Newmarket · Prestige Vehicles Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner for Tom Ward in January. On the up for his current yard and gained a third success of the summer in 12-runner handicap at Salisbury (6f, soft) in September. Seemed to struggle from this 5 lb higher mark at Kempton last time, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 62 · 6f12y Goo 127 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 62 par4/055OR 626 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 61 · 6f12y Goo 131 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 59 · 6f Sft 130 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 59 par9/066OR 596 @ Epsom Downs 16/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 59 · 7f3y Goo 129 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Windsor 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 58 · 6f12y GF 123 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 58 par27/075OR 585 @ Windsor 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 62 · 6f12y GF 129 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 62 par4 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 70 · 6f12y Sft 125 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 70 par29/084OR 705 @ Salisbury 11/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 70 · 6f Sft 135 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Kempton 07/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 75 · 6f Sta 136 · below its mark07/10/2026 · OR 75 par7/105OR 75projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-07KemptonBilly Loughnane58th9th−1
2026-09-11SalisburyJack Callan51st2nd−1
2026-08-29WindsorD Egan43rd3rd0
2026-08-13WindsorD Egan51st2nd−1
2026-07-27WindsorJack Callan51st2nd−1
2026-07-16Epsom DownsMason Paetel66th8th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0516/0729/087/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 29/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength50%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/20266th11/142%58%+0.16
18/05/20269th13/266%27%-0.39
09/06/20262nd25/10%90%+0.90
16/07/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
27/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
13/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
29/08/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
11/09/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
07/10/20268th8/158%30%-0.28