3
Star Material
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 9 · OR 80
Newmarket · Prestige Vehicles Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Doncaster | Mikey Sheehy | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | Beverley | Barry McHugh | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Newcastle | O McSweeney | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | C J Whiteley | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-03 | Chepstow | Mikey Sheehy | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Chester | Mikey Sheehy | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength99%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2025 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 11/10/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 18/04/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.33 |
| 06/05/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 36% | -0.06 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 20/08/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 22/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/10/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |