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3yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 6 · OR 79

Newmarket · Prestige Vehicles Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Both wins on all-weather but proved himself just as effective on turf when posting a good second at Hamilton (6f, firm) in May. Joined new yard for 47,000 gns in July but went backwards from stable debut effort when ninth of 11 over 7f here 3 weeks ago. Quickly reverts to sprinting.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR - · 7f Goo 13318/09C8C8 @ Dundalk 05/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 6f Std 1265 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f14y Std 1335/0454 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 83 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Hamilton 27/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 82 · 6f6y Goo 137 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 82 par27/054OR 822 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 18th of 22 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 84 · 6f Gd 136 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 84 par22/084OR 844 @ Newmarket 09/10/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 82 · 7f GS 138 · below its mark09/10/2026 · OR 82 par9/104OR 82projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09NewmarketDaniel Muscutt49th9th0
2026-08-22NewmarketCallum Hutchinson410th10th0
2026-06-13YorkA Mullen218th16th+2
2026-05-27HamiltonA Mullen42nd2nd0
2026-04-26WetherbyA Mullen46th6th0
2026-04-05SouthwellA Mullen51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0926/0422/089/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 63/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength29%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/202513th40/10%20%+0.20
05/11/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
05/04/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
26/04/20266th12/137%50%+0.13
27/05/20262nd7/163%86%+0.23
13/06/202618th40/10%19%+0.19
22/08/202610th28/10%25%+0.25
09/10/20269th28/10%20%+0.20