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5

Lyra Lea

3yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 7 · OR 77

Newmarket · Prestige Vehicles Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Two-time 7f winner who hasn't had many goes at sprinting and she caught the eye having met with trouble when fourth at Salisbury (6f) 4 weeks ago, forced to switch/hampered before staying on. Certainly worth a second look on the back of that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Goodwood 12/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 73 · 7f Gd 128 · beat its mark12/10/2025 · OR 73 par12/104OR 734 @ Wolverhampton 18/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 72 · 1m142y Std 122 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 71 · 7f16y Sft 127 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 71 par6/064OR 715 @ Salisbury 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 73 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Sandown 24/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 74 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 74 par24/075OR 744 @ Newbury 14/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 132 · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 78 par2 @ Salisbury 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 78 par3/092OR 784 @ Sandown 11/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Salisbury 01/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 77 · 6f Sft 129 · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 77 par1/104OR 77projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01SalisburyLewis Edmunds44th4th0
2026-09-11SandownDarragh Keenan44th4th0
2026-09-03SalisburyLewis Edmunds23rd1st+2
2026-08-14NewburyOisin Murphy46th6th0
2026-07-24SandownLewis Edmunds51st2nd−1
2026-06-30SalisburyLewis Edmunds52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1030/063/091/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 40/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength42%

Delivery trend -7.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/10/20253rd16/116%78%+0.62
18/05/20264th25/10%50%+0.50
06/06/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
30/06/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
24/07/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
14/08/20266th11/486%17%-0.69
03/09/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
11/09/20264th5/174%50%-0.24
01/10/20264th13/266%77%+0.11