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3

Supreme King

6yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 4 · OR 79

Newmarket · Prestige Vehicles Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Versatile sprinter who gained a fourth a success of 2026 at Salisbury (6f) in August. Essentially remained in good order, third at Chester prior finishing 3 lengths fifth of 14 back at Salisbury (6f) 4 weeks ago. Each-way claims from a mark that looks about right.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chepstow 03/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 77 · 7f16y Goo 130 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 77 par3/074OR 774 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 78 · 5f110y Goo 128 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 26 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 136 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 78 par29/074OR 783 @ Salisbury 12/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 78 par3 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 82 · 6f17y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 82 par22/083OR 824 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 82 · 6f12y Sft 140 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Salisbury 11/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 81 · 6f Sft 135 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 81 par11/094OR 814 @ Chester 19/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 81 · 6f17y Hvy 135 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Salisbury 01/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 80 · 6f Sft 133 · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 80 par1/104OR 80projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01SalisburyColin Keane45th5th0
2026-09-19ChesterJ F Egan43rd3rd0
2026-09-11SalisburyP Cosgrave43rd3rd0
2026-08-29WindsorBilly Loughnane46th6th0
2026-08-22ChesterJ F Egan35th4th+1
2026-08-12SalisburyOisin Murphy31st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0712/0811/091/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength75%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/07/20262nd6/492%80%-0.12
10/07/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
29/07/20267th11/271%76%+0.05
12/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
22/08/20265th14/126%60%+0.34
29/08/20266th11/486%38%-0.48
11/09/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02
19/09/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41
01/10/20265th13/266%69%+0.03