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6

Winged Messenger

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 8 · OR 75

Newmarket · Prestige Vehicles Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended a fine 2025 campaign with success in Ayr Bronze Cup. Hasn't fared anywhere near so well this time around, though, and he was well beaten minus usual hood (refitted here) in this year's corresponding race. Handicapper affords him a 5 lb drop but others look stronger.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Epsom Downs 15/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 74 · 6f3y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 74 par15/084OR 743 @ Thirsk 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 80 par2 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 25 · OR 80 · 6f Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 80 par19/092OR 804 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 84 · 5f217y Goo 134 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 139 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 84 par13/064OR 844 @ Doncaster 26/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 82 · 6f2y GF 132 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 80 · 6f6y GS 140 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 80 par21/084OR 804 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 78 · 5f3y Gd 136 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 78 par2 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 19th of 24 · OR 80 · 6f Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 80 par18/092OR 80projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18AyrD Tudhope219th17th+2
2026-09-13DoncasterRowan Scott410th10th0
2026-08-21HamiltonRyan Sexton47th7th0
2026-06-26DoncasterTom Kiely-Marshall45th5th0
2026-06-13YorkTom Kiely-Marshall411th11th0
2026-05-25RedcarTom Kiely-Marshall44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0825/0521/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 9-10 · tight 86/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -11.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/08/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
06/09/20253rd16/116%87%+0.71
19/09/20251st17/255%100%+0.45
25/05/20264th6/168%70%+0.02
13/06/202611th12/137%50%+0.13
26/06/20265th7/163%43%-0.20
21/08/20267th10/147%33%-0.14
13/09/202610th6/168%0%-0.68
18/09/202619th10/147%22%-0.26