4

Ibtekar

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 8

Newmarket · Cologne's 65 Preis Von Europa British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

75%

Place Prob

42%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Night of Thunder filly who shaped with plenty of encouragement when third of 5 on 7f Ascot debut (good to firm) 4 weeks ago. Sure to improve and gets the vote.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength12%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ascot 02/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS2/102
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02AscotK Shoemark23rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength86%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20263rd14/126%50%+0.24