3
Beagle Bay
4yo Gelding · 9-13 · Draw 7 · OR 94
Newmarket · Dusseldorf's Henkel 169 German Oaks Handicap · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | York | H Crouch | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sandown | H Crouch | 2 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Yarmouth | H Crouch | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-13 | Leicester | H Crouch | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Chelmsford City | H Crouch | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Newbury | H Crouch | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 4-14 · tight 46/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -13.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 13/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 73% | +0.02 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/10/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |